Pakistan's Fuel Stocks: Parliament Reveals 22 Days of Petrol and 30 Days of Diesel

In a written reply to Pakistan's National Assembly, Minister for Petroleum Ali Pervaiz Malik disclosed that the country currently holds roughly 22 days of petrol cover and 30 days of diesel cover, and ruled out any additional fuel-conservation measures beyond those already in force. The reply, given to a question by MNA Sharmila Faruqui, is an official position statement rather than an independently verified measurement. According to the figures, petrol stock stands at 395,000 tonnes, with a further estimated 111,000 tonnes afloat or at outer anchorage, for total availability of about 506,000 tonnes. At daily consumption of roughly 22,500 tonnes, this equates to slightly more than 22 days. The arithmetic reconciles internally: 506,000 divided by 22,500 gives approximately 22.5 days. The cover is adequate but not comfortable; a single delayed import cargo would compress the buffer materially. Diesel looks more comfortable. Stock of 568,000 tonnes covers about 30 days of consumption. Monthly demand is roughly 570,000 tonnes while domestic refinery output is about 555,000 tonnes, leaving a deficit of some 15,000 tonnes per month financed from opening stock. No diesel imports are planned for the month—a confidence signal, but also a flexibility cost, since no upside buffer is being built for the winter season. Petrol is different. Planned imports for the month are about 511,000 tonnes against domestic refinery supply of only 262,000 tonnes, for total supply of about 773,000 tonnes versus projected demand of about 692,000 tonnes. That implies deliberate buffer-building of roughly 81,000 tonnes, or about 12 percent. It also implies import dependence of about 72 percent for petrol in a single month, exposing the pump price directly to international market moves. Sales data show a sharp swing. Petrol sales rose 18 percent year-on-year in July against a normal rate of about 5 percent, then fell 9 percent month-on-month in August. A 13-point swing in one month is large; the minister attributed it to summer tourism and dealer stock-building. That explanation is plausible but not the only one—inventory positioning ahead of a price or policy change is equally consistent with the data. On pricing, a notable structural change has occurred. Regulator Ogra has been authorised to publish daily ex-depot prices without prior approval from the federal government or the prime minister—a genuine deregulatory step. Domestic prices are set on a rolling seven-working-day average of Platts FOB Arab Gulf assessments. That short window transmits international volatility to consumers quickly, with minimal smoothing. The most commercially significant figure disclosed is the price-differential claim position. Total claims stand at Rs120.3 billion, of which Rs53.8 billion has been disbursed—about 44.7 percent. The residual of roughly Rs66.5 billion remains contingent on document verification and an Ogra-appointed auditor. This large unpaid balance is placing working-capital strain on oil marketing companies and refineries, a condition that can disrupt supply even when stock levels look healthy. Enforcement capacity matters equally. Oil marketing companies have been directed to investigate abnormal retail-outlet sales, and Ogra field teams may coordinate with provincial law-enforcement agencies where needed. But this federal-provincial coordination layer is a known weak link. The real challenge is deterring hoarding and diversion even when stocks are adequate. Overall, on the disclosed numbers Pakistan is not in a physical fuel-shortage situation; the arithmetic is internally consistent and the stock position is sound. The risk is financial and structural rather than physical. Roughly 72 percent petrol import dependence, a short seven-day price pass-through window, and more than half of subsidy claims unpaid combine into a squeeze that can bite even when tank-level numbers look healthy. One important limitation is dating. All figures are given 'as of September 22' with no year specified, making the data unusable in any time series without an external timestamp. There is also an apparent tension between ruling out additional conservation measures and a related reference to newly notified austerity and a 9pm market closure; the reconciliatory reading is that the closure was already notified and the minister is ruling out measures beyond it. That is inference, not stated fact. Taken together, the document is a reassurance statement. Its framing is one-directional—leading with the rejection of further austerity and describing the August sales decline as normalisation. Readers should treat it as an official position, not a neutral measurement. The document contains no cricket content whatsoever; it is energy-policy news.